It was fascinating to observe the way the debates in the EU referendum unfolded and how people were making decisions about which way to vote. In the end it was almost impossible to differentiate fact from fiction on both sides. Sadly (in my opinion) that meant that many people voted purely on emotion and not just any emotion, but deep feelings that had been triggered by primary threats to survival.
Being SCARFed
An
easy way to remember the five Primary Threats that trigger a ‘fight or flight’
reaction is the mnemonic SCARF. This stands for Status, Certainty, Autonomy,
Relatedness and Fairness. When any of these
get triggered our Limbic system gets activated and we get a surge of neurochemicals
that some scientists say reduce our intelligence due to the way they make us
narrow our attention onto specific details, neglect the bigger picture and
become overwhelmed with feelings that often go back to our early childhood. When we are triggered by two or more of the
Primary Threats you could call it being ‘SCARFed’!
From
the way the referendum went, it was clear to see that large sections of society
in the UK were led to believe that their status and autonomy is being
diminished by the European Union, that building welcoming relationships with
foreigners is dangerous because they’ll take our jobs and that experts were
being terribly unfair when they raised alarms about the UK going out on its
own. I was concerned that this potent
cocktail of primary threats was being whipped up to such a degree that people
would be willing to sacrifice certainty and throw it out the window, but I was still
shocked when they actually did it.
Thinking Fast and
Slow
According
to the neuroscientists and the excellent research done by Daniel Kahneman there
are two fundamental modes of thinking.
Thinking ‘Fast’ and thinking ‘Slow’.
It is far easier to think fast than to put the effort into thinking
slow.
Thinking
fast is mainly unconscious, automatic, rapid, associative and
stereotypical. It is highly influenced
by bias and has no relationship to intelligence. On the other hand, thinking slow takes a lot
of effort because it is very conscious, deliberate, controlled and analytical. It is egalitarian because biases are
objectively scrutinised and it can be related to intelligence.
We all use both modes in a variety of contexts from
shopping and choosing a menu item to choosing a partner or casting our
vote. There is wisdom in knowing which
mode you are using to make your decisions.
If it is all unconscious you may be making a decision based on a false
premise or lacking consideration of the emotional consequences.
Fast thinking scans memories and feelings for quick
and simple answers. If I’ve been reading
my favourite newspaper about all the immigrants taking jobs and undercutting my
wages, or that £350 million is being given to the EU every week (which is even
more than a footballer earns!) then when I’m asked if I want to leave the EU
and I hear that it will stop immigration and squandering all that money, I
don’t need to think very hard about it.
The answer is clear.
Thinking slow is more challenging. There are often complex implications and
variables to take into consideration. Each
of these requires even more thinking and it is very easy to get bogged down or
lost in the details if you are in this mode.
However, when things are confused by lots of conflicting messages the
brain can simply give up and resort to the easier fast process.
We all have the same human brains and the same
thinking processes, so both sides of the EU debate were affected by the
struggle to make sense of the referendum rhetoric. However, we all have different values and
feelings based on all the threats and rewards we experience throughout our
lives, especially the ones from early childhood. This brings us back to the SCARF model of
Primary Threats and how much we are triggered by feelings of a lack of status,
certainty, autonomy, relatedness and fairness.
According to research a perceived threat is five times stronger than a
perceived reward. So in the end it looks
like more people were SCARFed into rejecting the UK’s relationship with the EU
than seeing the benefits of it. Now many
other people are SCARFed by the massive uncertainty that lies ahead, sadly this
includes investors and many business leaders who need to reassess their options
while the politicians scrabble for power and the unenviable job of negotiating
new deals for the UK.
Gut Feelers and Rationalisers
When I attended the course on Applied Neuroscience
last year one of the modules was on decision making and it is a very complex
process that activates numerous parts of the brain. Rather than going into the details of which
parts of the brain are utilised, it’s easier to stay with Kahneman’s model of Thinking
Fast and Slow. Professor Riddle, who
taught the course I attended, used the terms ‘Gut Feeler’ and
‘Rationaliser’. Many people have a
preference for one or the other and some have a well-developed balance of both
(for more on that click here) (*).
Whatever your preference there are many different
context that can affect which mode you use and it is useful to step back and
ask yourself some key questions before making a decision, especially if it is
an important one that has far reaching consequences.
Tips for making wiser decisions
Throughout the day our brain is constantly comparing
all incoming data with our needs, wants and desires, as well as our fears about
comfort, safety and survival. Depending
on our levels of stress and optimism our brains will make fewer or more neural
connections. If we are stressed and
pessimistic our brains will make fewer neural connections and imagine negative
outcomes that are sometimes illogical because accidental connections are made
in the brain that have no basis in reality, and yet the brain will perceive
them as real. When we are relaxed and
optimistic our brains increase the number of neural connections. This enables loosely connected yet
potentially insightful and creative solutions, ideas and possibilities to come
to our conscious awareness.
Here are some tips for making wiser decisions:
1. Practice the ability to become more calm and mindful (If you are
interested in this click here)
2. Consider the quality of the questions you ask yourself.
3. Consider the criteria you use to make comparisons and judgements.
Here are some good questions to ask yourself if you
are a Gut Feeler (Thinking Fast)
- What
is your gut feeling?
- Is
there a risk you are ignoring?
- Are
you emotionally attached to the outcome?
- What
important details are you missing?
- What
does your gut say?
Here are some good questions to ask yourself if you
are a Rationaliser (Thinking Slow)
- What
are the extreme outcomes?
- Is
there a benefit you are ignoring?
- What
are the emotional repercussions?
- What
details are not important?
- What
is the first step?
Tips for assessing
complex decisions
When
you need to make a decision in a highly complex situation it is useful to ask
some additional questoins. For example:
·
What is your attitude to Risk? (*)
Are you risk-adverse or are you willing to face an unpredictable outcome
and know you can manage it whichever way it turns out?
·
What is your level of tolerance for
Ambiguity? Can you handle the vagueness
and uncertainty in a given outcome even when the risk cannot be evaluated?
·
What is your level of ignorance in this
situation? Is there critical information
missing? What do you need to do to get
it?
Maintaining optimism
The outcome of the EU referendum is a poignant
example of the VUCA world we now live in.
The Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity created by the
Brexit vote will have far reaching consequences for all of us and we now need
to overcome our differences and work hard to make the new reality work for the
good of all.
The antidote to VUCA is about moving from Volatility
to Vision, from Uncertainty to Understanding, from Complexity to Clarity and
from Ambiguity to Agility. This means exercising leadership in every aspect of
our lives and exercising leadership means making wise decisions.
I believe that we are fundamentally creative
creatures and as long as we can stay mindful and ask the right questions we
will be able to build new relationships and overcome the obstacles that get
thrown in our path and create a fairer, more inclusive and better society for
us all.
If
you are interested in exploring some very exciting and insightful tools and
techniques for succeeding in the current environment just contact Amanda at info@InspiredWorking.com
and ask for a no-obligation call to explore your issues and see how we can help
you achieve even more success in the coming days, months and years.
With best regards
David Klaasen
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